Life in the Valley

Heading home on March 5 from Lexington, Ky., even those on the Indiana State bus might have wondered where the season was going from there. The Sycamores were 2-8, had just been swept by the Wildcats – who ironically might end up being their regional host if projections are to be believed. Their overall losing streak was 7 games, including 3 at home to Northeastern, which back in early March wouldn’t have been looked upon the same way it is now, after the Huskies finished the regular season 41-12.

The hitters were struggling to make contact, the pitchers were giving up runs in bunches, and Indiana State was looking at 6 more games on the road, 2 at Southeast Missouri State, 3 at Memphis, and one at Illinois. The way things were going at the time, maybe 3-3 or 4-2 was a best-case scenario.

Of course, the rest, as they say, is history. Indiana State won all 6 of those road games to get back to .500 on the season, allowing just 16 runs in the process and scoring 39. Notably, all 3 of those teams won at least 25 games as it turned out, and 2 of the 3 finished at least .500 (SEMO wasn’t far off in their own right at 26-29). But 3 losses to Big 10 competition followed, twice to Michigan State and once to Indiana. Indiana State was a pedestrian 8-11 heading into conference play, which would begin with a home series against in-state rival Valparaiso.

But it was in that first game against the Beacons where we got a great look at the buzzsaw the Sycamores were destined to become. Mike Sears homered. Seth Gergely had 3 hits (including 2 homers), drove in 6 runs, and scored 3. And Matt Jachec gave up just 1 run on 4 hits with 0 walks and 8 strikeouts over 8 innings as Indiana State romped, 10-1. Two more wins followed, adding up to a weekend sweep that got the Sycamores back to .500 again at 11-11, and gave them a 3-0 start in conference. Indiana State would never leave the top spot in The Valley again, and they’d never see the south end of the .500 mark again, either.

After beating Purdue, ISU dropped the opener in its next conference series, a 10-7 loss at UIC where Jachec got just 8 outs and Flames’ standout Charlie Syzkowny homered twice. Now 12-12, 3-1 in the conference, the Sycamores needed to win the final two in Chicago to avoid a series loss.

As it turned out, the phrase “conference series loss,” never applied for Indiana State this year. They won the last 2 in Chicago all right, beat Indiana 4-0 in Bloomington, swept Illinois State, Belmont, and Southern Illinois, with midweek victories over Purdue and Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt! It all added up to a 14-game winning streak and a 26-12, 14-1 MVC record.

And while 15 games is a significant portion of a college baseball season, it is still a bit of a small sample size in general. Surely they wouldn’t be that hot in the 2nd half of the Valley schedule, which includes series against decent clubs in Evansville, Murray State, and Missouri State, right?

Right, well sorta. The Sycamores were a mere 10-2 over their last 12 conference games, losing the opener to Evansville and dropping a game to the Racers. With a 3-game lead going into the final conference regular-season weekend, Indiana State needed just 1 win at Missouri State to secure the outright Valley title. Of course, the Sycamores won all 3 in rousing fashion to go 24-3 in the league. Indiana State’s .889 conference winning percentage is the MVC’s best since Missouri State went 18-1 (.947) in 2017. (Cautionary tale for the Sycamores, that Bears team got knocked out of The Valley Tournament by 8th-seeded Illinois State.)

The .889 conference winning percentage was also the 2nd-best such record in the country. Only Oral Roberts (.958) dominated its league more thoroughly than the Sycamores, going 23-1 in the Summit League. Army (.840, Patriot); Central Connecticut State (.833, NEC); Dallas Baptist (.833, C-USA); Campbell (.815, Big South), and Kent State (.800, MAC) were the only other schools in Division 1 to win at least 80% of their games against conference competition this season.

But then there’s Indiana State’s schedule, which rounds us back to those early struggles. The Sycamores went 6-8 against Power-5 competition this season, rallying as the season went on to beat Illinois twice, Purdue twice, Indiana, and a 10-2 victory at then #4 Vanderbilt. A March 21 loss to Indiana (15-5) marks the last time Indiana State lost a mid-week game. Their non-conference RPI is currently 3, according to D1Baseball.com. And they went 14-11 against that part of the schedule. Against teams rated 51 on down, Indiana State is 36-5. They’ve beaten who they were supposed to beat, and they played admirably against a tough non-conference schedule. They should be ranked in the top 25, but don’t get me started.

Indiana State doesn’t start its postseason run with gaudy stats. Adam Pottinger is the only hitter at better than .300 and that’s barely (.301). Sears has 18 of Indiana State’s 65 homers. No one else has more than 8. Sears’ 54 RBIs are at least 23 better than anyone else on the ball club. Their .271 team batting average seems modest, until you contrast that with the fact that opposing teams are hitting a meager .241 against the Sycamores.

And that’s not because Jachec (6-3, 3.90) is the lone ace. Connor Fenlong (9-2, 3.52) has developed into the type of pitcher that 80% of the country would love to have as its Friday night starter. Fenlong is the only pitcher in the country to throw 3 complete-game shutouts this season. Fenlong, along with Jachec and Lane Miller, are a combined 21-5 on the season with a 3.47 ERA. The trio has struck out 172 batters against just 53 walks. Jared Spencer anchors the bullpen with 47 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings and 5 saves. As a team, Indiana State carries a 3.94 ERA into The Valley Tournament, tied with Duke and Alabama for 7th-best in the nation.

Indiana State might not have all the star power some other teams claim. But that’s OK. The Sycamores instead feature a full roster of players who do a lot of things well. And once the wins started rolling in after the 2-8 start, the group never looked back. Their pitching depth and timely hitting should carry Indiana State to The Valley Tournament title. If the Sycamores sweep through the event on their home field, it will be hard to deny them a regional hosting spot. If not, Indiana State is certainly safe in terms of an at-large spot and the only way The Valley gets multiple bids this season to the NCAA Tournament is if another team besides Indiana State wins the Valley this week.

Missouri State is capable with its offense, but the Sycamores swept the Bears. Evansville has the power and bullpen to potentially do it, but Indiana State took 2 of 3 from the Purple Aces. Southern Illinois may have the offense to keep up, but pitching depth is a question mark.

This week should be Indiana State’s coronation. And if they continue to play as they have, it will be. But baseball, especially at the collegiate level, is a funny game, and anything can happen (see Penn scoring 8 runs in an inning on 1 hit Monday vs. Princeton). The Sycamores can relax today as they await the winner of Tuesday’s UIC-Belmont game. Indiana State’s tourney debut is slated for 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

Here’s Tuesday’s action at The Valley Tournament:

2:30 p.m. Eastern: #6 UIC (27-23, 13-14 MVC) vs. #7 Belmont (25-31, 10-17), ESPN+
6 p.m.: #5 Murray State (29-26, 14-13) vs. #8 Valparaiso (20-25, 10-17), ESPN+