Life in the Valley

You’ve seen his name in these pages before. North Carolina’s Mac Horvath has been mentioned here often for his prowess both hitting the ball a long way, and running real fast when he gets on base in some other manner. Horvath, a 6-foot-1 junior from Rochester, Minn., was the first player in Division 1 this season to reach 20 homers and 20 stolen bases, a feat equaled during The Valley baseball Championship by Evansville’s Eric Roberts. Of those 5 players in Division I in the 20/20 Club, Horvath has the most homers (22) and steals (24).

Horvath hits .305, and his 22 homers and 62 RBIs lead the Tar Heels. He’s started every game for North Carolina, which brings a 35-22 overall record and 14-14 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) play to Terre Haute for today’s start to the NCAA Regional, in which the Tar Heels will take on 2nd-seeded Iowa in tonight’s 2nd game. Top-seed and host Indiana State plays #4 seed Wright State at 1 p.m. Eastern in the opener. All games are live and archived on ESPN+ with several also telecast on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU.

Given his power and speed, you won’t be surprised to learn that Horvath leads the Tar Heels by a good margin in runs with 71, which is tied for 18th in the country (all stat leaders from D1Baseball). Horvath had an 8-RBI game against UNC-Wilmington on April 25, thanks to a pair of 3-run homers and a 2-run single in a game North Carolina won, 18-2. UNCW is no midweek cupcake, either. The Seahawks are in the Conway, S.C., Regional, hosted by 2016 College World Series champs Coastal Carolina, where they will take on Duke today. That UNCW performance started an 11-game hitting streak for Horvath, in which he went 20-for-46 (.435), scoring 18 runs, driving in 24 (he also had a 7-RBI game in that stretch), with 7 homers and 5 steals.

To a large extent, so goes Horvath, so go the Tar Heels. Like many others lately, Horvath and the Tar Heels were held down by a red-hot Clemson team the final weekend of the ACC season, as the Tigers swept and Horvath went 1-for-11. Undeterred, Horvath scored 6 runs in the first 2 games of the ACC Tournament, wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia. But Clemson awaited in the semifinal and the Tigers bested the Tar Heels again, with Horvath going 0-for-4 in a game where the entire UNC team managed just 5 hits, though C Tomas Frick did hit 2 solo homers.

Horvath’s track record this season suggests that any recent slump was probably more due to the opponent than anything else. And Clemson isn’t in the Terre Haute Regional. He’ll take the field Friday evening as perhaps the best individual player in the Regional.

And while all eyes will be on Horvath this weekend, this North Carolina team brings plenty more to the table. Let’s take a closer look at the Tar Heels.

Offense: North Carolina hits .285 as a team and has scored 431 runs in 57 games (7.56 per game). Led by Horvath’s 22, the Tar Heels have hit 83 homers, with Frick (12), Vance Honeycutt (10), and Alberto Osuna (10) also in double figures. Five Tar Heels are hitting at least .300, with Horvath actually 5th of that group. Frick leads at .329, with 21 doubles to go with his 12 homers making for a 1.005 OPS (Horvath’s is 1.123). As a team, UNC has an impressive .402 on-base percentage combined with a .480 slugging percentage for an .882 team OPS. Despite Horvath’s 24 steals (in 28 attempts), the Tar Heels don’t actually run that much. The rest of the club has stolen just 30 bases this season and 19 of those belong to Honeycutt. Combined, Horvath and Honeycutt are 43-for-51 on steal attempts this season. The rest of the UNC team is 11-for-14. One other thing to watch for when the Tar Heels are hitting – UNC batters have been hit 81 times this season. Also, the Tar Heels don’t bunt much. The team has just 11 sacrifice hits.

Pitching: From a stat perspective, some might think North Carolina’s trio of weekend starters – Jake Knapp (5-3, 4.79, 60 K in 62 IP); Connor Bovair (4-4, 5.57, 57 K in 72 2/3 innings); and Max Carlson (4-2, 5.97, 71 K in 69 1/3 innings) aren’t particularly impressive. But there are big things ahead in all likelihood for Knapp, a 6-foot-5, 255-pound junior right-hander from Greensboro, N.C. who went to UNCW as a freshman and then pitched two seasons at Walters State, becoming a third-team NJCAA All-American in 2022. Knapp has been good in 5 of his last 6 outings (the lone hiccup came to Clemson). Throwing out the Clemson appearance on May 19, Knapp’s other 5 outings featured just 7 earned runs allowed over 22 innings (2.86 ERA), with 12 walks and 22 strikeouts. He came up huge in Carolina’s ACC Tournament win over Virginia, going 5 2/3 innings and allowing just 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts against one of the best lineups in the country. Bovair, however, has struggled in recent outings, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) on 14 hits in just 6 2/3 innings in appearances against Coastal Carolina and Clemson (twice). But both those teams are hosting regionals. Matt Poston (3-3, 1.77) and Kevin Eaise (3-3, 3.37) both have 5 saves to lead the Tar Heels. Combined, they’ve fanned 102 batters in 91 1/3 innings. Boston has allowed just 2 homers in 40 2/3 innings.

Defense: Like Wright State, North Carolina is tied for 93rd in the nation in fielding with a .973 team percentage. But the two who handle the most chances, Frick and Hunter Stokely, have made just 5 combined errors over 789 chances (.994). Horvath has been moved around of late after playing 3B almost exclusively. He’s committed 14 errors in 153 chances (.908). North Carolina has 53 errors as a team and Tar Heel pitchers have allowed 38 unearned runs this season.

And so it’s time. Enjoy Regional Friday – the greatest day of the college baseball season. We’ll have recaps of the action here at MVCBaseball.com, and we’ll be following Indiana State as long as its NCAA Tournament run lasts.