Life in the Valley

TCU’s 40-22 record may not be enough to startle some Indiana State fans. After all, the Sycamores are 45-15 and have been on their own hot streak for quite a while now, going 43-7 in their last 50 games.

The Horned Frogs have been hot and cold at times, losing 2 to what turned out to be a pedestrian Florida State club early in the season, dropping games to UT-Arlington, San Diego, and Texas State, then winning 5 straight before losing a 20-16 slugfest at Texas Tech in a series the Horned Frogs lost,2 -1.

In late April, TCU dropped 2 of 3 at home to UNC-Wilmington and then got swept at West Virginia. A midweek win over Dallas Baptist wasn’t enough to sooth the Horned Frogs as they lost 2 of 3 at home to Texas the next weekend.

But since May 6, TCU has been one of nation’s best teams. TCU won 5 straight over Cal-State Fullerton and Baylor, and have won 9 more in a row heading into this weekend’s Super Regional, following a 7-6 loss to Kansas State on May 18. That 1-run loss is all that separates the Horned Frogs from being on 15-game winning streak. TCU’s strength of schedule this regular season was 21, according to D1Baseball, while Indiana State’s was 31.

In these last 9 games, however, the Horned Frogs have been other-worldly, outscoring their opponents by a combined 104-32. No team has scored more than 5 runs against TCU during this stretch, and the Horned Frogs have been held to 5 or less runs themselves just once, a 4-3 win at Kansas State on May 20. TCU has scored in double figures in 6 of its 7 postseason games, with only K-State again avoiding the guillotine, but still losing, 6-3.

At the Fayetteville Regional, the Horned Frogs powered through Arizona once and Arkansas twice by a combined 44-13. They hung 20 runs on Arkansas June 4, then turned around and hammered the #3 national seed Razorbacks again, 12-4, in the Regional final.

TCU’s season stats are impressive enough – a .302 team batting average, .896 team OPS, 85 homers, 307 walks, 139 stolen bases in 158 attempts (88%), and 505 runs (8.15 per game). But it’s what the Horned Frogs have done during this 9-game winning streak that’s really mind-boggling. Against opponents that include Kansas State (4x), Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Arkansas (2x), TCU has hit .405, knocked an ungodly 1.153 OPS, scored 92 runs and collected 105 hits. They also stole 15-of-18 bases. They are averaging nearly 20 total bases per game in the winning streak.

The likely top 5 in the TCU batting order when the Horned Frogs and the Sycamores take the field in Fort Worth for Game 1 of the Super Regional possesses stats over the last 9 games that look like something out of a PlayStation game:

1. Elijah Nunez, CF: .367, 12 runs, .972 OPS
2. Karson Bowen, C: .516, 14 runs, 16 hits, .556 OBP; 1.201 OPS
3. Brayden Taylor, 3B: .533, 17 runs, 21 RZBIs, 5 HRs, 2 SB, .600 OBP, 1.733 OPS
4. Cole Fontenelle, 1B: .440, 10 runs, 7 walks, .559 OBP, 1.159 OPS
5. Tre Richardson, 2B: .419, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 8 runs, .903 SLG; 1.341 OPS

And that doesn’t even include DH Kurtis Byrne, who may hit 6th or 7th and is at .452 over the last 9 games, with 13 runs, 5 homers, 10 RBIs, a 1.000 slugging percentage; and 1.485 OPS. Richardson hit 3 homers and drove in 11 runs in TCU’s 20-5 win over Arkansas at the Fayetteville Regional. Richardson had 5 hits in that game and 14 total bases. The 4 HRs Richardson has hit of late were double that of what he’d hit in TCU’s first 53 games.

Taylor leads the Horned Frogs with 23 homers and 69 RBIs, to go with a .671 slugging percentage (1.111 OPS). Fontenelle (11) and Byrne (10) are the other TCU haters with at least 10 homers. The Horned Frogs have smacked 130 doubles, led by 19 from Fontenelle and 18 by Davis. Six Horned Frogs are in double figures for wall-bangers.

But the Horned Frogs are far from a cast of behemoths who hit the ball 900 feet and grunt their way around their bases in a slow trot. TCU has 6 different players with at least 10 stolen bases and 2 with at least 20, led by Richardson (24) and Davis (22). They run on average 2.5 times per game and TCU has even laid down 24 sac bunts. Anthony Silva and Byrne have been bouncing back and forth between the #6 and #7 spots in the order lately, but here’s a look at TCU’s possible batting order with relevant season stats:

1. Nunez: .300-3-35, 34 BB, 53 K, 19 SB, .853 OPS
2. Bowen: .363-6-46, 14 doubles, .956 OPS
3. Taylor: .321-23-69, 14 doubles, 49 walks, 14-for-14 SBs; 1.111 OPS
4. Fontenelle: .335-11-49, 19 doubles, 38 walks, 20 SBs, 1.050 OPS
5. Richardson: .320-6-58, 16 doubles, 24 SBs, 80 hits, .871 OPS
6. Byrne: .291-10-44, .865 OPS
7. Silva: .342-7-46; 17 SBs; .922 OPS
8. Davis: .284-8-53, 18 doubles, 31 walks, 22 SBs, .842 OPS
9. Maxwell: .290-2-18, .837 OPS in 117 plate appearances.

Luke Boyers (.232-7-26; .805 OPS) usually finds his name in the scorebook as well lately and started 43 games this season.

No matter how you stack the numbers or break them down, this TCU offense is going to present the biggest challenge Indiana State pitching has faced this season. Whether the Sycamores continue to start Matt Jachec first and Connor Fenlong second, or reverse them to try and get a jump on the Horned Frogs in Game 1, Indiana State is going to have its work cut out for it.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at TCU’s pitching.