Life in the Valley

Indiana State the Head of the Class, but Who’s Next?

First Up, Take Me to Our Leaders: Indiana State is fancy, sitting there at the head of the table with a 34-10 record, a 3-game lead in the Missouri Valley Conference, and a glittering, glowing RPI of 10. Without any major mess-ups on the run-in toward the end of the regular season, the Sycamores are in fine position to again serve as an NCAA Regional host. Terre Haute welcomed a regional last season and the Sycamores were victorious. (They should have hosted a SuperRegional, too, but let’s not talk about that.)

Sweeping a weekend series from Belmont turned out to be far more valuable to the Sycamores in the pollster’s eyes than did their 21-11 midweek loss to Illinois. Indiana State moved up from #24 to #20 in the latest D1Baseball.com Top 25, and is still holding down #14 in the Perfect Game Top 25 (State has been #14 so long in that poll, I think they legally own the spot now).

If Indiana State wins its remaining 2 conference weekends (which would run the Sycamores’ streak to 19 straight conference series wins, a remarkable number), even a slip up in the MVC Tournament shouldn’t hurt Indiana State’s hosting chances. Evansville took Indiana State to the limit in last year’s MVC Tournament before the Sycamores prevailed, and with their strong offense and emerging starting pitching, UE could do so again. UIC’s lineup is not to be trifled with, and even though Indiana State swept the Flames earlier this season in Terre Haute, all 3 games were within 4 runs and the Saturday game was a 9-8 affair. In a double-elimination set up, UIC’s lineup is dangerous.

Despite a poorer MVC record than they were expecting, Missouri State is a team that could do damage in the MVC Tournament, as well, given their propensity for the long ball. The Bears (19-28, 8-13) have hit 92 homers in 47 games – which is an impressive tally itself. But remember that 59(!) of those homers have come in Missouri State’s last 22 games – basically the last month. That pace, over a 56-game season, would represent 150 team homers, a ridiculous number even in this era of college baseball.

Between Evansville’s doubles and Missouri State’s homers, no wall is going to be safe in Terre Haute. But until someone shows they can take 2 from the Sycamores, the favorite is clear.

2. Speaking of RPI: Indiana State sitting at 10 in the RPI is the good news for Valley fans. If another team does jump up and win the Valley Tournament, we know the Sycamores are getting an at-large bid, they just might not host.

Unfortunately, that’s the only way the conference is sending 2 teams to Regionals.

Once both in the 50s with a chance to move forward, UIC (71st) and Murray State (73rd) have fallen out of any such contention. UE never could crack the top 100 again, and are now sitting at 109. Ironically, the schedule actually favors Evansville from this perspective, since they still have series left against top-100s Indiana State and UIC. But UE is 2-8 against its highest-ranked competition this season, and 18 of its 26 wins have come against what the RPI and D1Baseball consider Quad 4 teams.

Missouri State (121) and Southern Illinois (135) round out the Valley in terms of the top 150 in RPI as of Monday. There just aren’t many chances left for teams to garner important wins that can seriously help them. Unlike the SEC or ACC, where every game seems to help teams whether they win 4-3 or lose 20-4, conference record almost doesn’t matter for those teams, because their schedules are regarded as “gauntlets.”

It’s not a conundrum the Valley can turn around without expansion and adding really good programs to replace the likes of the departed Creighton, Wichita State, and Dallas Baptist. But those programs don’t grow on trees. And most have already been swept up in some previous round of conference realignment anyway.

So let’s enjoy Indiana State’s run (41-9 in their last 50 Valley games) and appreciate their accomplishment if they repeat their tournament triumph. If they don’t … the conference as a whole at least may benefit.

3. Speaking of the Conference Race: So 2 conference weekends remain. The season, it goes by faster and faster every year. This was a big weekend for the Sycamores, their sweep of Belmont allowing them to gain a game on Evansville, who took 2 of 3 at Valparaiso. UIC hung in, 3 games back, having swept Bradley. The top 4 are assured MVC Tournament bids with Illinois State having swept 9th-place Valparaiso earlier this season, and the Redbirds hold a 6-game lead on the Beacons for the final spot.

Closest to the bubble is Missouri State, 2 games clear of Valpo and 3 ahead of 10th-place Bradley. The Bears and their traveling Homer Machine go to Belmont this weekend before wrapping up the regular season at home vs. Southern Illinois. With series wins over Valpo and Bradley, Missouri State needs to win 4 of its last 6 to guarantee a tourney spot if Valpo wins out.

The middle of the field is pretty packed. Murray State sits a game behind 4th-place Illinois State at 11-10, having taken 2 of 3 vs. Missouri State over the weekend. SIU and Belmont are even at 9-12, a game ahead of the Bears. SIU swept Belmont earlier this month to hold the tiebreaker. The 5th- through 8th-seeds kickoff the tournament with a doubleheader on Tuesday, May 21 in Evansville. So the extra day of rest afforded to the top 4 finishers is worth going after. The Sycamores already have that clinched, 6 up on 5th-place Murray State with a series win in the books. UIC or UE, both 14-7, could slip if one sweeps the other on the final weekend.

4. Landers Dominating for Belmont: On a team where much of the time it seemed like the offense was somewhat spread about evenly earlier in the season, Mason Landers has now shown to be the key cog in Belmont’s run production in 2024.

Landers, a senior from Shelbyville, Tenn., leads the Bruins (22-25, 9-12) in every triple-crown category, batting .346 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs. Landers vaulted into the Valley’s Homer King title race starting with a 2-homer, 4-RBI game against Murray State on March 29. Including that game, Landers has hit 11 homers in his last 21 games, with 26 RBIs – including 2 more 4-RBI games, back-to-back vs. Valpo on April 13 and 14. He’s 33-for- 87 (.379) in that stretch, and at one point carried a 20-game hitting streak going back to a 2-for-4 performance vs. Indiana on March 15.

Landers is slugging .686 now and has a 1.090 OPS. His 65 hits have him in the running for the conference title in that category, and he’s been durable, starting every game this season for Belmont. Landers is a .290 hitter for his career (.877 OPS) with 33 homers and 118 RBIs. He just recently scored his 100th career run, as well.

5. This Weekend’s Video Outlook: With games becoming more meaningful as we head down the stretch, this weekend’s video schedule belies that. Friday’s game between Evansville and Indiana State gets the royal treatment, as it will be shown on ESPNU at 3:30 p.m. Central. All 14 other Valley games this weekend are slated for ESPN+ streaming, but keep in mind weather postponements and delays could affect that.

6. MVC vs. B1G: Because this is always fun to look at when you’re the “mid-major” conference, let’s check in to see how Valley teams have done this season against their Big Ten brethren.

Overall, the Valley is 12-13 vs. their Midwestern (mostly) colleagues. The landscape changes next season when Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA join the Big Ten, though you’ll be able to count the number of midweek games they’ll stick around for on one hand and probably still have 5 fingers left. And teams like Belmont, Murray State, and Missouri State tend to play foes from conferences other than the Big Ten.

Here’s how each team has fared so far:

• UIC: 3-0 (beat Northwestern twice and Purdue once. Purdue and Iowa still to play.)
• Indiana State: 5-2 (beat Purdue twice; Michigan State once, and split 2 vs. Indiana and Illinois.
• Evansville: 2-3 (beat Indiana, went 1-2 vs. Michigan State, and lost to Purdue).
• Belmont: 1-2 (1-2 vs. Indiana)
• Illinois State: 1-4 (lost twice to Northwestern; beat Indiana; lost to Illinois, Iowa).
• Bradley: 0-2 (lost to Illinois and Iowa).
• Murray State: 0-0.
• Southern Illinois: 0-0.
• Missouri State: 0-0.
• Valparaiso: 0-0 (scheduled to play Northwestern on May 14 in Chicago.)

7. Midweek Games are Numbered: With 2 weeks left in the season, there are only a couple opportunities for midweek baseball left in the 2024 campaign. Not every team will be using all those, having gotten a good number of games in at warmer locales back in February and early March. But here’s a primer on what’s left for your baseball pleasure to beat back any midweek doldrums:

• Indiana State: May 14 at Ball State
• UIC: May 7 vs. Purdue; May 14 at Iowa
• Evansville: May 7 vs. Southern Indiana; May 14 at Austin Peay
• Illinois State: May 14 vs. Eastern Illinois
• Murray State: May 14 vs. Alabama A&M
• Southern Illinois: May 7 vs. SIU-Edwardsville; May 14 vs. Bellarmine
• Belmont: May 7 at Austin Peay; May 14 at #1 Tennessee
• Missouri State: May 7 vs. SEMO; May 14 vs. Oral Roberts
• Valparaiso: May 7 vs. Western Michigan; May 14 at Northwestern
• Bradley: None

8. Fun Stats from Conference Play Only:

With the smaller sample size that only counting MVC stats provides, here are 10 awesome stats from the 7 conference weekends so far.

1. In 21 conference games, Indiana State’s 7 qualifying batters (2 AB per game; 75% of team games played) all have an OPS of at least .935. Mike Sears leads the way at 1.233, one of 4 Sycamores over the 1.000 mark. For everything said about Indiana State’s pitching, its lineup is no joke.
   1a. Indiana State has also hit more homers in conference play (43) than doubles (41).
2. In conference play, UIC’s Kendal Ewell is hitting .425 with 12 homers, 31 RBIs, and slashing .505/.931/1.436. He has 37 hits in 21 Valley contests and has scored 24 times.
3. Evansville pitchers Kenton Deverman, Shane Harris, and Donovan Schultz have combined to start 19 of the Purple Aces’ 21 Valley games. Together, the trio is 12-2 with a 3.58 ERA, with 27 walks compared to 90 strikeouts over 125 2/3 innings. Harris also has a save.
4. Luke Lawrence of Illinois State has found his groove since conference play began. Lawrence leads the Redbirds in conference batting average at .350, and also has drawn a team-best 9 walks with just 11 strikeouts. Lawrence has started and appeared in all but 1 of Illinois State’s Valley games this season.
5. Cade Vernon is the unquestioned conference ace for the Murray State Racers. Vernon is 5-1 in 7 Valley starts, with 48 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings. He’s issued just 10 walks for a nearly 5:1 strikeout:walk ratio. His 5 wins represent 45% of Murray State’s Valley victories this season.
6. SIU’s Aidan Foeller has continued his torrid strikeout pace since MVC play began. In 7 starts, Foeller has fanned 51 batters in 39 2/3 innings of work. Representing 119 outs recorded, 42.9% of the outs Foeller has gotten in conference play have been via the strikeout.
7. Belmont has 5 regulars hitting at least .300 in conference play, led by the aforementioned Mason Landers at .386. But Brodey Heaton (.367); Jack Rando (.337); Sam Slaughter (.330) and Blake Barton (.301) are in on the party. Landers has 11 HRs and 31 RBIs in Valley games, while Heaton has driven in 30. As a team, Belmont is hitting .291 in conference games.
8. Missouri State has not one but two players – Caden Bogenpohl and Zack Stewart – who have hit 10 homers in conference play this season. We talked about MSU’s recent long-ball prowess earlier, but the Bears have jacked 53 homers in 21 league games, for a team slugging percentage of .568. MSU’s team OPS in Valley play is .964.
9. Bryce Konitzer has emerged as a quality arm on the Valparaiso pitching staff since conference play began. Konitzer is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 6 appearances (3 starts), including a shutout. He’s fanned 21 in 23 1/3 innings with just 5 walks. And in this homer-happy era, Konitzer has only allowed 2 long balls in those 23 1/3 innings.
10. Bradley’s Beau Durbin has found a grove in conference play, hitting .356 to lead the Braves, along with a team-leading 1.016 OPS. Durbin has 4 homers and has driven in 14 runs in Valley play, both also Bradley team highs.

9. He Shall Get on Base: It’s been a month now since Evansville’s Mark Shallenberger played in a game and didn’t get on base by either a hit or a walk. The last time it happened, Shallenberger went 0-for-4 with 0 walks in an April 5 win at Belmont. In 18 games since then, Shallenberger has only been held hitless 4 times, and he was walked once in all those games. For the span, Shallenberger is 28-for-67 (.418) with 20 runs scored, 25 RBIs, and 13 walks. Shallenberger is currently on an 8-game hitting streak, during which he’s 16-for-30, a cool .530 average, including 5 homers. Shallenberger now has 150 career RBIs in 194 games with the Purple Aces. His next double will be the 50th of his career.