Life in the Valley

Indiana State’s Power an Improvement Over ’23 Super Regional Team

If you said before the season that Indiana State would find pitchers woh would at least be as strong on the mound as 2023 starting aces Connor Fenlong and Matt Jachec, I probably would have believed you, given how the school has produced quality pitching in years past.

If you said before the season that Indiana State’s Mike Sears would break the school’s single-season homer record with 23 homers this season, 4 more than last year, I probably would have believed you. It’s not a major jump year to year, and it would figure that Sears would improve a bit on last year’s performance.

But, if you said before the season the sheer magnitude of improvement the entire Indiana State offense would be so comprehensive, I’m not sure I would have believed that. But whatever you or I might have thought of the Sycamores’ offense coming into the 2024 season, Indiana State (42-13, 22-5 Missouri Valley Conference) has likely exceeded all expectations.

Think about this. Indiana State is hitting .299 on the season. That’s a full 27 points higher than last year, and last year’s team advanced all the way to Super Regionals before falling to TCU, 2 wins short of a College World Series appearance. That improvement would be notable enough, but then consider that the Sycamores have also hit 101 homers, 28 more than last season – or a 38% improvement. Even as we’re in an era and maybe a season that has featured a power surge, that’s a lot of extra homers.

The combination of improved hitting and more power – Indiana State is slugging at a .521 clip this season compared to .438 in 2023 – has made Indiana State just as dangerous this season, if not more so, despite the team ERA increasing from 3.84 a year ago to 4.61 this season. But last year, Indiana State’s run differential was 2.41 runs per game. This season, it’s 2.84 runs per game.

Sears led the Sycamores with 62 RBIs last season, but no one else in the lineup had more than 38 (Grant Magill). Only 3 Sycamores hit at least 10 homers. This season, 4 Indiana State players are in double-digits in homers, but the difference is the lowest of that group is Parker Stinson with 15, while Randal Diaz has 15. And while Sears set the school record with 23, Luis Hernandez is right behind him with 22. The leading quartet alone has more combined homers this season than the entire team hit all of last season.

So how does all this compare to Indiana State’s regional opponents starting Friday? Let’s take a look.

• #1 seed Kentucky (40-14, 22-8 SEC, 1st): With just 2 hitters in double figures for homers, the Wildcats lineup doesn’t immediately wow you. Ryan Nicholson’s 18 lead the way, as do his 54 RBIs. Ryan Waldschmidt has 13 homers. Top hitter Nick Lopez is batting .369 with 20 doubles and 49 RBIs. But UK does other things well. The Wildcats have drawn 266 walks in 54 games, which usually leads to an extra base because UK has stolen 109 bases in 2024, though the Wildcats have been caught 29 times. UK has 113 doubles and 10 triples to go with a modest 78 homers – for 201 extra-base hits. UK, which averages 8.09 runs per game, just misses out for now on the .400/.500/.900 club, falling 2 points short in slugging, but the Wildcats carry a .408 on-base percentage and .906 team OPS. Waldschmidt leads qualifying batters in that stat at 1.141. and he’s also stolen 23 bases.
• #3 seed Illinois (34-19, 18-6 Big Ten, 1st): Indiana State’s first regional opponent is a familiar one. The Sycamores and Illinois Fighting Illini played twice this season with very different results. Indiana State won the game March 12 in Terre Haute, 7-6. Nearly two months later in Champaign, the Sycamores gave up their biggest run total of the season, losing to the Illini, 21-11. I wrote earlier in the season that the Illini were a team that looked plenty of capable of putting up some big numbers but they were inconsistent. They found it late in the season, scoring in double figures 5 times in their last 13 games on their way to the Big Ten regular-season title. The conference tournament was a different story, however, as Illinois only went 1-2 and scored just 10 runs in 3 games. Camden Janik leads the Illini with a .368 average, while Ryan Moerman’s 18 homers pace a quintet of double-digit Illinois sluggers. Illinois hit 103 homers as team and slugs .522 thanks to 201 extra-base hits, combined with a .405 on-base percentage for a .927 team OPS. Jacob Schroeder leads Illinois in OPS at 1.063. Illinois is averaging 8.21 runs per game, but it’s via a station-to-station style. Illinois has only stolen 25 bases and only laid down 19 sac bunts.
• #4 seed Western Michigan (32-21, 19-11 MAC, 2nd): For what the Broncos lack in power and extra-base hits, they make up for in just plain good old-fashioned hitting. Western Michigan carries a .316 team batting average into regionals, led by Cade Sullivan at .397 and C.J. Richmond at .384. The two of combined for 23 homers and 116 RBIs, as well as scoring 113 runs with 31 doubles. The Broncos have only hit 64 homers this season and have 93 doubles and 12 triples for 169 extra-base hits, likely one of the lower totals for any team in the field. But that hasn’t stopped them, with WMU averaging 7.66 runs per game. They’ve drawn 276 walks, been hit 70 times, and executed 41 sacrifice bunts. While the team carries a .901 team OPS, their top 3 in Sullivan, Richmond, and Dylan Nevar have been impressive, with OPS numbers of 1.104, 1.161, and 1.049, respectively. After dropping its opener in the MAC Tournament, Western turned into a demolition crew in winning 4 straight games to capture the title, beating Central Michigan, Ball State, Bowling Green, and Ball State again, 10-0, 8-0, 11-0, and 10-3.

As with the Greenville Regional I profiled on Tuesday, and really most of college baseball this season, there’s no shortage of hitting in this Lexington Regional, though the approaches may differ for the 4 teams.