Life in the Valley

Indiana State Led the Valley With a 4.61 ERA

With the hitting we’re going to see from all 4 teams in the Lexington Regional, it’s no secret that the final verdict on who wins the regional and advances on to Supers is going to lie with the pitching, both from an effectiveness standpoint as well as depth. All season long, Indiana State has had an advantage in that category in the Valley, often more than a full run better in ERA than its conference competition and with multiple talented starters and relievers.

Starters Luke Hayden and Brennyn Cutts have led the way most weekends, the combined 14 starts and relief work of Jared Spencer and Jacob Pruitt have led to a combined 9-2 record with 126 strikeouts in just 86 innings. Batters are hitting just .216 and .227 against Spencer and Pruitt, respectively. Hayden and Cutts both made 15 starts each for the Sycamores and have similar numbers. Hayden went 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA this season with 84 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings, while Cutts, the Missouri Valley Conference Pitcher of the Year, is 6-1 with a 3.89 ERA and 70 Ks in 74 innings.

But even if teams get to one of Indiana State’s talented starters, getting into the Sycamores bullpen isn’t necessarily a win. Zach Davidson has been whatever is the next level up from lights out recently, striking out 40 batters in his last 4 appearances, over 22 innings. He’s only walked 3 in that time and allowed just 1 run (0.41 ERA) on 13 hits. Each of Davidson’s last 2 outings saw him throw at least 100 pitches, but he enters Friday’s regional on 7 days rest. He’s not alone, however. Whomever isn’t starting out of Pruitt and Spencer joins Davidson, Cam Edmonson (49 Ks in 46 2/3 innings); Simon Gregersen (7 saves, 40 Ks in 33 1/3 innings) and Cameron Holycross as options for Indiana State head coach Mitch Hannahs.

Defensively, Indiana State fields at a .975 clip, 65th in the nation.

Let’s look at the pitching for Indiana State’s 3 potential opponents in Lexington this weekend.

#1 seed Kentucky (40-14, 22-8 SEC, 1st): Kentucky’s pitching has been decent considering they play in an offensive-rich Southeastern Conference. But the Wildcats carry a 5.23 team ERA into regionals that ranked 74th in the country (Indiana State is 29th). Mason Moore (8-3, 5.40 and Dominic Niman (8-4, 5.94) have been regulars in the weekend rotation and while the 16 combined wins are good, the ERAs tell you they’re getting a lot of run support. UK is outscoring its opponents, 437-301, this season. Trey Pooser has made 10 starts and has a 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA. All 3 average just a bit less than a strikeout per inning. Johnny Hummel leads the Wildcats in saves (6) and has a 3-0 record and 3.54 ERA in 21 appearances. Cameron O’Brien has been the workhorse in terms of appearances with 30, through he just one decision (1-0) and no saves. Opponents are hitting .242 against UK pitchers and the Wildcats have allowed 66 homers this season. If the Wildcats end up in the loser’s bracket and get pressed for pitching, Drew Lafferty and Travis Smith combined to make 14 starts this season, but both have ERAs of more than 6.

#3 seed Illinois (34-19, 18-6 Big Ten, 1st): When looking at the starting staff for Illinois, most of the talk will start with Cooper Omans, a lefty graduate student from Oviedo, Fla., who previously played at Nova Southeastern College. In his lone season with Illinois, Omans is 4-1 in 12 starts with a 3.73 ERA, leading the staff among qualifiers. He’s fanned 56 and walked 28, and opposing hitters are batting a mere .215 against him. He’s also only allowed 7 homers in those 60 innings. Jack Crowder made 15 starts and has a 6-2 record but a 5.25 ERA, though opponents are only hitting .226 against him, he has allowed 15 dingers. Joe Glassey’s 8 saves lead the club in 22 appearances. He’s 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA. As a team, Illinois carries a 5.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The staff has allowed 84 homers. The Illini are usually far more likely to win a 9-6 game than a 3-1 game. They gave up 5.38 runs per game in a 7-1 stretch to end the regular season that helped Illinois capture the regular-season Big Ten championship. But the offense more than covered that, scoring 74 runs (9.25 per game). Illinois allowed just 4.67 runs per game in 3 contests at the Big Ten Tournament, but the offense faltered (10 runs total) and Illinois was eliminated by Michigan at the first time of asking.

#4 seed Western Michigan (32-21, 19-11 MAC, 2nd): Playing in a conference where high-scoring games have been pretty much the norm this season (Bowling Green beat Ball State on March 16, 34-8), Western Michigan’s 5.50 team ERA seems pretty impressive. Consider that when the Broncos went to that same Bowling Green team in May, WMU won 2 out of 3 and only allowed 12 runs total. Western Michigan also swept a 4-game series at Pepperdine in February, outscoring the Waves, 52-13. The Broncos went 3-2 against Michigan this season. Nolan Vicek has been the leading starter for WMU, going 5-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 starts with a complete game, and he’s picked up a save in relief. Vicek has an impressive 90 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings and only allowed 8 homers. Brady Miller made 15 starts and went 6-5 with a 6.48 ERA, while Jayden Denter’s 10 starts yielded a 4-2 record with a 5.48 ERA, though opposing hitters batted .290 against him. A key for the Broncos is that they limit opposing homers, having allowed just 52 on the season. The staff has also only walked 199 batters compared to 430 strikeouts. WMU went 0-3 this season against teams that made the NCAA Tournament (VCU, Florida State, and Illinois).