Life in the Valley

Just About Everything Up for Grabs as MVC Season Enters Closing Weekend

You could have looked at the Missouri Valley Conference composite baseball schedule way back in early February and found “Missouri State at Murray State, May 16-18,” and thought, well wouldn’t that be neat if it was a battle for the MVC regular-season title?

Fast forward 3 months. The winter chill is gone, replaced by warm sun and thunderstorms. Non-conference play is almost a thing of the past. And to steal a Bill Parcells quote, MVC teams are what their records say they are. And let the record state that in fact, this weekend in Kentucky, the Bears and Racers will get together – separated by just 1 game at the top of the MVC standings. Both teams won their season series over 3rd-place Southern Illinois, eliminating the Salukis from winning any 2-team or 3-team tiebreakers. Even if SIU sweeps Valpo this weekend to finish 18-9, either Missouri State will have at least 19 wins, as could Murray with a sweep, or all 3 finish 18-9, in which case this weekend’s series winner would also win the 3-way tiebreaker (both went 2-1 vs. SIU).

Let’s hope weather doesn’t wreak havoc on these series. You’d hate to see this great race decided in part because of games that couldn’t be played. And with the Valley Tournament slated to start Tuesday in Normal, there’s not much wiggle room.

Let’s spend the first part of this week’s Monday 9 looking at the weekend’s results to see how we got here.

1 – Bears Take 2 from Sycamores: Missouri State moved to 17 conference wins with 6-3 and 10-3 victories on Friday and Saturday, respectively, over visiting Indiana State. The Bears overturned a late 3-2 deficit Friday on RBI singles from Jake McCutheon and Taeg Gollert, before Nick Rodriguez’s 2-run homer in the 8th put it away. There was no such drama Saturday after a 6-run 2nd inning that featured homers from Tyler Epstein and Curry Sutherland. Owen Slater, Garrett Ferguson, Brody McNeil, and Jake Syverson combined to work 4 scoreless relief innings to put Missouri State (27-22, 17-7) in position to win the game and clinch the series. Epstein went 4-for-5 with 3 RBIs.

Slipping in the standings, Indiana State (23-28, 11-13) responded on Sunday, scoring 3 runs in the 5th after a 4-0 lead disappeared and holding on for a 7-6 win. Carter Beck had an RBI double and solo homer as part of a 3-hit day. Gavin Morris (6-3) pitched 4 innings of 2-hit, scoreless relief to get the win on just 46 pitches (3.83 pitches per out). Despite the loss, Rodriguez went 1-for-4 to extend his school-record hitting streak to 36 games. The Sycamores host Illinois State this weekend and are currently 2 games out of 4th place and 2 games ahead of 9th-place Evansville.

2 – Bruins Drop Series but Pick Up Massive Sunday Win: It was so close but yet so far for Murray State, which downed Belmont 7-3 and 8-1 to clinch the series, giving them a chance at tying Missouri State for first on Sunday. But Belmont LF Blake Barton had other ideas. His single in the bottom of the 10th inning Sunday scored Charlie Davis (4-for-5) with the winning run as the Bruins walked off the Racers, 4-3. After Murray took a 3-2 lead in the 2nd, Andrew Perry and Ethan Harden combined to throw 8 scoreless, hitless, no-walk innings in relief, with Perry registering 4 strikeouts. They baffled 26 Racers hitters on 92 pitches to give Belmont a chance to win.

The victory was of great importance for the Bruins, who avoided the sweep and improved to 13-11 – good for a 3-way tie with Illinois State and UIC for 4th place entering the final weekend. The top 4 seeds in the Valley Tournament avoid playing in Tuesday’s single-elimination round. The win, combined with Evansville’s loss to Southern Illinois, also clinched Belmont’s (24-28) spot in the tournament.

3 – SIU 3rd After Repelling Rivals: Southern Illinois bounced back from a Friday loss with back-to-back 13-3 victories over visiting Evansville. SIU is 2 games clear of the 3-way tie for 4th, and can’t drop below 6th, with hopes of still taking the 2-seed for the Valley Tournament. As usual, Matt Schark was a big reason for SIU’s success. In the 2 wins, Schark bashed 4 homers and drove in 10, including a 3-homer, 7-RBI performance on Saturday. Schark now leads the Valley in both homers (20) and RBIs (70). During a 5-game hitting streak, Schark is 10-for-20 (.500) with 5 HRs, 7 runs, and 11 RBIs. He’s hitting .338 for the season.

Tim Simay and Kaleb Hall also homered for SIU in the Saturday win, with Hall adding a double and driving in 5. An 8-run 6th propelled SIU to another 7-inning victory Sunday, with Michael Mylott driving in 4, and Gabe Petrucelli and Schark each driving in 3. As a team, the Salukis are now hitting .296 with a .935 OPS, 110 doubles, and 86 homers.

Evansville slipped to 9th in the standings with the losses at 9-15 (15-35). The Purple Aces are 1 game behind Bradley for the final spot in the Valley Tournament, after winning the event last season and using that as a springboard to get within one game of the College World Series. That drama for the final spot will come to a head this weekend, too, as the Braves visit Evansville.

4 – Braves Sweep Beacons: Speaking of Bradley, the once 0-11 Braves are now 10-14 in conference play after taking 3 from Valparaiso over the weekend. Bradley dominated the matchup, outscoring Valpo, 36-14, with the lone close game coming Saturday when the Braves knocked off the Beacons, 9-7. Bradley took the bookend games, 14-4 and 13-3. Friday’s win ended thanks to a 9-run 7th inning, in which Timmy O’Brien hit not 1 but 2 RBI singles as part of a 4-hit game. Saturday was the Cole Luckey show, as the senior LF from Glenview, Ill., compiled 10 total bases with the rare 1-homer, 2-triple game. Bradley pounded out 10 extra-base hits in the 9-7 victory. On Sunday, Bradley used 9 singles, a Jackson Smith double, and 9 walks to roll past the Beacons. Smith went 3-for-3 with 3 RBIs and 2 walks. Beau Durbin and Nick Hosie each drove in 3 for the Braves.

The news wasn’t all bad for Valparaiso, however. Friday marked the return of Ryan Maka to the Beacons lineup. He had been out since March 28 due to injury, missing 22 games. The Beacons went 3-19 in that stretch. Maka made his presence felt right off the bat in his return, scoring 3 runs in the Friday opener with 2 doubles. He went 3-for-6 with 4 runs for the weekend, missing Sunday’s game.

5 – Redbirds Win Nailbiter to Take Weekend: When you think of Illinois State this baseball season, you probably think of Judah Morris getting on base or Daniel Pacella homers or Shai Robinson coming through with big hits. And after all, much of the Valley baseball season has been about offense, though there have been quite a few pitching gems recently, including 2 no-hitters. But Sunday in Normal, with Illinois State and UIC even at a game apiece, was a baseball purist’s dream. Flames starter Brandon Bak (an author of one of the aforementioned no-hitters) and Tanner Perry squared off and the result was a 1-0 Redbirds win to take the series. Perry allowed just 2 hits, with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts on 112 pitches (4.15 ppo). Bak was a hard-luck loser in this one, going 7 innings and giving up just 1 run on 6 hits with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts on 106 pitches (5.05 ppo). The lone run came on Noah Smith’s sac fly in the 5th, which scored Luke Stulga. Smith was the only player on either team to collect 2 hits in the game. Both UIC hits were doubles.

It was a key result for Illinois State (24-25, 13-11), putting them into the 3-way tie for 4th with Belmont and the Flames. The Redbirds also won their season series with the Bruins, 2-1, so they are in good shape in terms of possible tiebreakers among that group. Illinois State visits Indiana State this weekend, and the Sycamores will be desperate for wins to avoid possibly slipping out of the Valley Tournament. UIC, meanwhile, goes head-to-head with Belmont.

6 – Milestone Watch: If Missouri State holds on for the top seed, it will be the Bears’ first MVC regular-season title since 2018, when they went 18-3 and won the league by 2 games over Dallas Baptist. It, of course, would also be their last. … Evansville’s win over Southern Illinois Friday was head coach Wes Carroll’s 443rd at the school, passing SIU’s Dan Callahan for 11th on the all-time conference list. Carroll has 164 MVC wins, most among active head coaches, and he would tie Rick Heller (Northern Iowa/Indiana State) for 7th if UE sweeps Bradley this weekend. … Murray State’s next win will be head coach Dan Skirka’s 200th at the school. … UIC head coach Sean McDermott captured his 100th win when the Flames beat Valpo on May 3, which was Bak’s no-hitter. … Murray State’s Jonathan Hogart has 24 doubles, the most by a MVC player since Evansville’s Tanner Craig equaled that mark in 2022. No MVC player has had more than 24 doubles in a season since 2017, when SIU’s Greg Lambert had 25. The Valley record for doubles in a season is 34 by Wichita State’s Joe Carter in 1980. He turned out pretty decent.

7 – RPI Ramblings: As we enter the final week of the regular season, I almost feel obligated to talk about RPI. I know there are some folks out there holding out hope that a Valley team could somehow snag an NCAA Regional at-large bid. But sadly, as Charles Barkley once said about apologizing for his TV antics, “That’s not gonna happen.”

Among Valley teams, SIU is the leader in RPI at 94, according to the current list published at D1Baseball.com. The Salukis are a respectable 4-6 vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2 competition (the best of the best), but 33 of their games have come against Quad 4. Even winning out, making the MVC Tournament final, then losing, won’t lift SIU’s RPI enough to be considered for an at-large bid. For all the fun we’ve had this regular season, the conference tournament and who wins it is what matters when you’re not a Power-4 team, or you don’t play in a high mid-major league.

Missouri State is 188 in the latest RPI. The Bears tried to play a tough schedule, but teams like Missouri and Oklahoma State have been down this year (though don’t ask Texas A&M about Mizzou right now). The Bears strength of schedule is 281st out of 307 teams, though if you looked at it based on name only, that would seem baffling. RPI life should improve for the Bears in Conference USA next season, but at-large bids are still going to be tough to come by.

8 – Speaking of Power-4 Teams: With 1 mid-week and 2 games vs. Power-4 Conference (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC) teams left, let’s look at how the Valley fared this season. Tuesday brings the final 2 such matchups, as Valparaiso hits the road to take on Northwestern out of the Big 10, while Belmont has a tough assignment at #17 Tennessee.

Here’s each Valley team’s record against the Power-4:

• Missouri State: 3-6 (Wins: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Missouri. Losses: Mississippi State (3); Missouri, Kansas State, UCF.)
• Murray State: 1-1 (Win: Kentucky Loss: Ole Miss)
• Southern Illinois: 0-0
• UIC: 1-13 (Win: Northwestern. Losses: Georgia (4), Louisville (3), Purdue (2), Iowa, Northwestern (2), Washington.)
• Illinois State: 4-3 (Wins: Oklahoma State, Iowa (2), Illinois. Losses: Oklahoma State (2), Illinois.)
• Belmont: 0-7 (Wins: None . Losses: Kentucky (3), Notre Dame (3), Vanderbilt.)
• Indiana State: 2-7 (Wins: Purdue, Indiana. Losses: Virginia Tech, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois (2), Vanderbilt, Tennessee.)
• Bradley: 0-7 (Wins: None. Losses: Alabama (3), Iowa (2), Illinois (2).)
• Evansville: 2-5 (Wins: Missouri (2). Losses: Kentucky, Missouri (2), Indiana (2).)
• Valparaiso: 2-7 (Wins: Ohio State, Illinois. Losses: Ohio State (2); Vanderbilt, Illinois (2), Purdue, Notre Dame.)

Valley teams combined to go 15-56 (.211 winning percentage) vs. the Power 4 this season. Here’s the breakdown by opposing conference:

• ACC: 0-8
• Big 10: 8-22
• Big 12: 2-4
• SEC: 5-22

With all the information above, have you spotted the weird fact? SIU is the Valley leader in RPI having not played a single Power-4 opponent all season. The Salukis racked up wins (35), have done well in conference play, and lead the pack. Especially with Missouri State leaving for next season, Valley teams are going to have to look at their non-conference scheduling going forward.

9 – The Week Ahead: We’ve gone through the weekend schedule to some extent, but just to refresh your memory as we hit the finish line, here’s what we have on tap starting Friday, weather permitting:

Missouri State at Murray State
Illinois State at Indiana State
Bradley at Evansville
Belmont at UIC
Southern Illinois at Valparaiso

Keep up with my feed on X for game times, streaming information, and other news.

Ed Morgans is the founder of MVCBaseball.com. An Evansville graduate, Ed has written about and broadcast college baseball, while following the sport for 40 years.