Life in the Valley

MVC Champs Bring Deep Lineup and Bullpen to Oxford Friday

After what Missouri Valley Conference baseball teams have done in the NCAA Tournament the past 2 years, it isn’t enough to just note that Murray State is this year’s MVC representative in Regionals. Yes, the Racers are headed to Oxford, Miss., to take on host Ole Miss Friday, while Georgia Tech takes on Western Kentucky in Friday’s first game. But when those outside the region think about the Valley, they think about Evansville and its run into a Game 3 of Super Regionals at #1 Tennessee last season, or perhaps 2023, and Indiana State winning the Terre Haute Regional to advance to Supers against TCU.

While multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament are eluding the Valley these days, the expectations for what the lone representative can do haven’t lowered. Because the MVC is a 1-bid league now, it’s incumbent on that team to show well.

Also true, however, is that Murray State (39-13, 17-8 MVCC) likely got a tougher regional draw than either Indiana State or Evansville the past 2 seasons. No, the Racers aren’t welcomed to Oxford by 3 Power-4 teams. But, Ole Miss is in the ultra tough SEC and was good enough to earn a top-16 seed. Georgia Tech is the regular-season ACC champion – somewhat stunning that the champ of the 2nd best conference in the country behind the SEC isn’t hosting, but anyway. And then there’s Western Kentucky, who had a dominant first couple months, slipped up a bit late, but rallied to win the Conference USA Tournament.

I’ll preview those other 3 teams ahead of Friday’s Game 1 between the Yellow Jackets and the Hilltoppers (this is one of the top regionals in terms of team nicknames). But here, let’s focus on Murray State.

How They Got Here: Won a share of the MVC regular-season title, capturing the tiebreaker over Missouri State to be the top-seed in the MVC Tournament. Then, Murray State swept through that event, surviving an 11-inning battle with Belmont, 15-14, before knocking off Southern Illinois, UIC, and finally Missouri State, to win the event and capture the MVC’s automatic bid. Counting the tournament, the Racers went 21-8 vs. MVC competition this season, and that’s with having dropped their first 2 series in 2-1 fashion to Evansville and Illinois State.

Since the 13-10 loss to the Redbirds on March 29, however, Murray State is 24-5, 19-4 vs. the Valley.

Murray State vs. Ole Miss: The teams played this season in Oxford already, with the Rebels claiming an 8-7 win in 10 innings on March 5. Dan Tauken went 3-for-6 in that game with 2 RBIs; Jonathan Hogart, Dom Decker, and Luke Mistone all had 2 hits each. Despite the loss, Graham Kelham showed a glimpse of what he would become late in the season, going 5 innings and allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 4 strikeouts, registering 15 outs on 60 pitches. It’s hard to gain a lot of information from Mississippi’s pitching that day – the Rebels used 9 pitchers in a Johnny Wholestaff strategy, none of whom worked more than 2 innings. Rebel pitchers walked 7 and struck out 13 that day. Offensively, Judd Utermark hit 2 homers for the Rebels in that game. Utermark finished with 16 homers and a team-leading 60 RBIs.

Last season, the Racers strolled into Oxford and won, 12-9 in 15 innings. Hogart had 3 RBIs that night. Ole Miss leads the all-time series between the schools, 21-4-1. Including Friday’s matchup, all 27 meetings in the series have been in Oxford, dating back to 1965. Murray State’s other victories at Ole Miss came in 1996, 1997, and 2006.

Racers at the Plate: Murray State hit .301 this season, good enough to tie for 44th nationally. The Racers aren’t what you’d consider a traditional power club, having hit 65 homers in 52 games – a respectable total, but tied for 105th nationally. For perspective, Georgia. leads the country with 133. But don’t mistake that to mean Murray State can’t bludgeon you. The Racers’ 127 doubles are tied for 16th in the country, led by Jonathan Hogart’s 25, which ties him for third individually in the nation. Hogart (16 HRs) is one of three Racers to hit double-figures in both doubles and homers, joining Carson Garner (11-16) and Will Vierling (14-10). Six different Racers have at least 10 doubles and 2 others, Conner Cunningham (9) and Tauken (8) aren’t far off. Tauken’s 66 RBIs lead the club, are 2nd in the MVC , and tie for 49th nationally. Decker leads the club in average at .351 (17 doubles), while Dustin Mercer, the MVC Tournament MVP, hit .335 with 16 doubles, 49 runs, and more walks (30) than strikeouts (28). Mercer’s 74 hits were best on the team, with Hogart 1 behind.

The other half of the Racers’ offensive equation is their ability to get on base. What Murray State lacks in homers, their singles and doubles more than make up for because they’ve drawn 315 walks this season and have a team on-base percentage of .420. Combine that with a team slugging average of .496, and the Racers’ .916 OPS will compete with anyone. Garner drew a team-high 54 walks this season and was 2nd in runs with 56 (behind Hogart’s 64). Murray State scores 8.67 runs per game.

Don’t expect the Racers to run much. Murray State stole just 45 bases this season, though they were safe on 81.8% of their attempts. Given their lineup depth and hitting ability, there’s not much to risk outs trying to steal. And as you can imagine given the lineup, the Racers have just 7 sacrifices this season.

Racers On the Mound: It’ll be interesting to see who Murray State head coach Dan Skirka goes with on Friday. He’s got 2 pretty solid choices with very similar numbers. Nic Schutte went 7-3 this season with a 4.02 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings. He’s pitched to a 1.37 WHIP and opponents are batting .228 against him. Issac Silva is 7-2 (4.12) with 62 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings. His WHIP is 1.40, but he’s only allowed 4 homers. Opponents are hitting .250 against Silva.

As the Racers hopefully get deeper in this regional, Kane Elmy is a likely. choice for a start in a third game, having gone 6-1 in 8 starts (14 appearances) with a 3.83 ERA. While opponents are hitting .284 against him and his WHIP is 1.45, the sub-4 ERA indicates he knows how to get out of jams – a valuable tool in a regional loaded with offense.

Down in the bullpen, Dylan Zentko and Kelham have been most called upon. Zentko has 3 saves, but is also useful if the Racers face a high-leverage situation in the middle innings. Zentko has worked 44 2/3 innings in just 18 relief appearances, and average of 7.44 outs per game. Zentko has 50 strikeouts (3rd on the team). Kelham, a junior righty from LaOtto, Ind., had some shaky outings earlier this season but he’s fought that off with authority, allowing just 1 run in his last 11 appearances, a span of 19 innings, good for a 0.47 ERA. His lone appearance in the MVC Tournament was a big one, throwing 3 2/3 innings of shutout, 1-hit relief with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts in Murray State’s 15-14 win over Belmont that sent the Racers off to the winner’s bracket. Jacob Hustedde (1-0, 4.35, 39 Ks in 39 1/3 IP) has emerged of late as another quality arm with the ability to spot start if needed.

Racers in the Field: Murray State’s team fielding percentage of .977 ties them for 28th nationally (they’re 33rd if you go out another decimal or two). The Racers committed just 43 errors in 52 games, and no one in the regular lineup has double-digit bobbles this season. Catcher Vierling and 1B Mistone each have just 1 error in a combined 815 chances. While getting strikeouts from your pitchers is nice, if the ball is put in play, the Racers are likely to track it down.

Outlook: The other 3 teams in this regional will underestimate Murray State at their own peril. While not the favorites to emerge victorious (Evansville was just the 9th 4-seed in the current era to win a regional when it captured the title in Greenville last season), we know the Racers can play with the Rebels on their best day. Regardless the result Friday, a tough game awaits Saturday against either WKU or Georgia Tech. Success in Oxford is a tall order, but nobody should count this team out, either.

Ed Morgans is the founder of MVCBaseball.com. An Evansville graduate, Ed has written about and broadcast college baseball, while following the sport for 40 years.