Life in the Valley

Racers Make CWS Debut Saturday vs. UCLA

Chatter around Murray State’s College World Series debut against the UCLA Bruins Saturday afternoon has surprised me a bit. More than a few people I’ve heard this week not only think the Racers have a chance, but that the Racers are going to win.

Now, make no mistake, UCLA is a tough opponent. I think they’re a better team than Mississippi, Georgia Tech, or Duke. They’ve swept through their 5 games in this tournament, though they were all at home. They took advantage of a good draw in the Super Regional, sweeping UT-San Antonio after the Roadrunners had eliminated Texas. But it’s not fair perhaps to say that was a break for UCLA, given the Roadrunners beat the Longhorns not once, not twice, but three times this season. If UCLA was good enough to sweep UTSA, the Bruins are a really good team.

If you’re into using such things to guide how folks think a game is going to turn out. the Racers are +200 (2-1) at FanDuel on the money line to beat the Bruins today. UCLA, conversely, is a -265 favorite, meaning you’d have to bet $2.65 to win a dollar. Among the 8 teams in Omaha, the Racers came in as the longest shot on the board to win the title at 42-1. That number is down to 35-1 now and both Arizona & Louisville are 45-1 after their losses on Friday. UCLA, on the other hand, is 10-1, the 5th choice behind Friday winners Oregon State and Coastal Carolina, as well as LSU (+250) and Arkansas (+210).

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Yes. Of course there’s a chance. There’s more than a chance that Murray State (44-15) beats UCLA (47-16; Big 10 regular-season champs) today. But to do so, there are some important things to look for.

First, whether it’s Nic Schutte or Issac Silva on the mound today, the Racers are going to need a long effort from their starter. Even with days off now built into the College World Series schedule, trying to traverse the loser’s bracket to get to the final is a really tough haul. You can’t afford to use up your bullpen in Game 1. Schutte, who is allowing opposing batters to only hit .223 against him, has thrown more than 100 pitches on 10 occasions this season, including a stretch of 7 starts from March 22 through May 2 where he hit 100 in every start.

But I always post about pitches per out here. That’s an important delta today. It’s one thing to throw 100 pitches – the key will be how many outs does Schutte get from those pitches? It stands to reason that Murray State needs at least 6 innings from its starter, which sets up Dylan Zentko (4-1, 4.38, 3 saves) and Graham Kelham ( 4-1, 4.40, 9 saves) to finish the game off and be fresh for Monday’s tilt against either LSU or Arkansas.

Schutte is coming off a 4-inning outing in the Super Regional at Duke, but he threw 88 pitches, or 7.33 pitches per out. For a complete game, that translates to 198 pitches. For the season, Schutte has averaged 5.87 pitches per out (1,603 pitches in 91 innings or 273 outs). That would be 158.53 pitches per 9 innings. The Racers need a little more efficiency from this start against a tough UCLA lineup, which leads me to my next point.

Schutte has struck out 94 in those 91 innings, which any head coach would be thrilled with. But Schutte would also do well to let his defense work for him. The Racers have a .979 fielding percentage that lands them 19th in the nation (UCLA is at .982 – good for 7th, while Arkansas and LSU are also in the top 11 – tough bracket). The Racers can’t give up any extra outs and make the starting pitcher have to work even harder. One good thing in that regard is that the field in Omaha is immaculate. There shouldn’t be too many bad hops. There’s a lot of outfield ground to cover, so that will be a challenge. But on the other side of the coin, that could work to Murray State’s advantage, and here’s why.

Murray State’s offense should play at Charles Schwab Field. Many teams have come to Omaha since this stadium opened bursting with power, only to see fly balls die in deep center or the alleys and their ability to score is fractured. Legit power hitters can find their way these days in Omaha, but it pays to be able to score runs in other ways in order to be successful.

The Racers bring that kind of offense to Omaha. Yes, Murray State has hit 78 homers this season, which isn’t a bad number, but what’s more important here is the Racers’ 147 doubles. They are tied for 5th in the country in that stat, and have the most of any of the Omaha 8 (Arizona is 9th nationally with 133). Getting barrels on the ball and driving them to the gap or down the line will be an effective strategy here and that’s exactly what Murray State can do. It’s a layout that should suit the likes of Dom Decker, Dustin Mercer, Jonathan Hogart, and Luke Mistone.

It seems simplistic to say that the Racers should swing at strikes and look at pitches off the plate, but it’s much more difficult to do in practice. The Racers’ approach at the plate is going to be critical. They’ll be facing the type of pitching in this bracket that will probably put them behind in the count often. But fighting off good pitches for foul balls to extend at-bats, then smacking mistakes to the gap or down the lines will be key to Murray State’s success.

That’s a long way to say that Murray State needs to hit, pitch, and defend well to win. And the 8 teams who are here are all able to do that. Many of these games turn on little mistakes that create big problems. Murray State head coach and National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association Coach of the Year Dan Skirka has his team well drilled in the little things. Throughout this postseason, we’ve seen the Racers play the type of baseball that wins in Omaha.

Today, we finally answer the question. Can Murray State win in Omaha?

Ed Morgans is the founder of MVCBaseball.com. An Evansville graduate, Ed has written about and broadcast college baseball, while following the sport for 40 years.