Life in the Valley

Top National Seed Tennessee Stands Stout Between Evansville and Omaha

When you look at the Tennessee Volunteers’ baseball team, there’s one thing that impresses you.

Everything.

If you went into a lab to design a baseball machine with no faults, you’d probably come out with the Tennessee Volunteers, who are 53-11 this season and will host this weekend’s Super Regional against America’s Cinderella, the Evansville Purple Aces (38-24). Game 1 is Friday at 2 p.m. Central on ESPN2.

Let’s start with the offense, and oh, what an offense. The Vols, who went 22-8 in the SEC and won the conference tournament, are averaging 9.16 runs per game. If they score 14 runs in Super Regionals, they will reach the 600 mark for the season. In a year where we’ve noted teams in the Missouri Valley Conference as being part of the .400 (OBP / .500 (SLG). .900 (OPS) club, of which Evansville (.410/.509/.919) is a part, Tennessee takes it to another level with a .417 team on-base percentage combined with a .604 team slugging percentage for a team OPS of 1.021. However you may interpret OPS as a stat, over 1.000 for a team is insane.

Four starters who have played in just about every game for Tennessee this season lead the way, including Christian Moore, #1 on the jersey and #1 on the team with a .378 average, 29 home runs, and 67 RBIs. He carries a 1.229 OPS and slugs .780. Moore also has 17 doubles and 30 walks and has scored a team-best 70 runs. He needs 2 hits in Supers to reach 100 for the season.

By Tennessee’s total numbers, you can imagine that Moore isn’t a 1-man army. Blake Burke (.364-17-51; 1.115 OPS); Kavares Tears (.338-18-53; 1.109); and Dylan Dreiling (.330-19-63; 1.153 OPS) would be the driving force behind any other lineup in the country on their own. As a quartet, they have 83 homers – a number which would leave them, just those 4 guys, tied for 71st in the country in homers. To put it in perspective, the four hit more homers this season than Illinois State.

And that doesn’t even include Billy Amick, who missed 8 games this season but has started every one of his appearances, and is hitting .310 with 21 homers, 60 RBIs, and a .667 slugging percentage.

Hunter Ensley (.285-9-39; .908) and Dean Curley (..280-11-43 (.898) have seen regular time and been run-producers, as well. UT may also have a secret weapon in Colby Backus – who only started 5 games this season and has appeared in 27, but is hitting .400 in 30 at-bats with 3 doubles, 5 homers, and 12 RBIs.

In the Vols’ 4-3 win over LSU in the SEC Championship game, Tennessee’s batting order looked like this:

1. Christian Moore, 2b, .378-29-67, 1.229 OPS leading off, lol
2. Blake Burke, 1b, .364-17-51, 1.115
3. Billy Amick, 3b, .310-21-60, 1.061
4. Dylan Dreiling, lf, .330-19-63, 1.153
5. Hunter Ensley, cf, .285-9-39, .908
6. Kavares Tears, rf, .338-18-53, 1.109
7. Dean Curley, ss, .280-11-43, .898
8. Cannon Peebles, dh, 227-2-24; .718
9. Cal Stark, c, .234-9-25; .920

Collectively, Tennessee has hit 159 homers, the most in the country. They also have 141 doubles, which ties the Vols with Samford for 7th in the nation – Evansville is 2nd with 154, 2 behind leaders Austin Peay, whose season is complete. UT has drawn 338 walks (5.3 per game) and they run moderately, stealing 45 bases (why would you need to run with this lineup).

All of this offensive destruction has come against the 29th-ranked schedule in the country according to RPI rankings published at D1Baseball.com. Tennessee is #1 in the RPI, they’re 36-3 at home this season, and they’re 31-10 combined against Quad 1 and 2 teams this season. Tennessee is 27-8 this season against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, including 4-0 vs. LSU, 3-0 vs. Illinois, and 5-1 vs. teams who also hosting Supers.

Evansville capturing the Greenville Regional has moved the Purple Aces up to 63 in the RPI, a 14-spot jump over the previous week. UE is 5-8 against Quad 1 teams this season. The Purple Aces are 10-9 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament field, but 0-5 against SEC foes (1 loss to Vandy and Kentucky, 3 losses to Mississippi State).

Not to be forgotten is Tennessee’s pitching and defense. UT has committed just 47 errors this season, good for a .979 fielding percentage that ranks the Vols 24th in the country. UT’s team ERA is 3.80, nearly a full run better than the best of the MVC (Indiana State) had to offer. Starter Drew Beam is 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 16 starts, with 80 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings. A.J. Causey has made just 6 starts, but in 16 appearances has a 3.98 ERA and a 12-3 record. He’s fanned 109 in 81 1/3 innings and walked a mere 17. As a staff, Tennessee has 603 strikeouts and just 181 walks, a 3.33:1 strikeout:walk ratio. Nate Snead, who has only made 1 start in 22 appearances, but has thrown 65 innings, has UT’s lowest qualifying ERA at 3.05 and is 9-2 on the season.

Zander Sechrist (3-1, 3.60) has 16 starts under his belt, as well. The Tennessee rotation could likely be Beam, Sechrist, and then a variety of choices for a third game if necessary. Causey, Dylan Loy (2-0, 2.28), Chris Stamos (3-0, 3.60), and A.J. Russell (0-1, 5.02) all have at least 4 starts this season. Snead and Aaron Combs lead the Vols with 5 saves each. They have 18 as a team. Tennessee allows only 3.98 runs per game, a scoring margin of 5.18 runs per game.

Vols Weaknesses: This space for rent.

No one ever said Supers were going to be easy and Evansville certainly drew the toughest possible opponent. If you’re looking for any ray of light about Evansville’s chances, about the lone thing to look back on is Tennessee’s elimination at this stage in 2022. Then, the Vols were the #1 overall seed in the tournament and also hosted a Super. However, it all went haywire for Tennessee as they lost their home Super to Notre Dame in 3 games. The Fighting Irish were the 2-seed in the Statesboro Regional, advancing past Texas Teach, Georgia Southern, and UNC-Greensboro. That Fighting Irish team went 41-17 and 16-11 in the ACC, however. Notre Dame went 1-2 in Omaha, being eliminated by Texas A&M.

So, yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance. I’ll talk more about those chances later on the blog.

KNOXVILLE SUPER REGIONAL
Evansville at Tennessee
Game 1: Friday, 2 p.m. Central, ESPN2
Game 2: Saturday, 10 a.m. Central, ESPN2
Game 3, if necessary: Sunday, 5 p.m. Central, ESPNU